Crowding and the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 transmission

Rader B, Scarpino S, Nande A, Hill A, Reiner Jr. R, Pigott D, Gutierrez B, Shrestha M, Brownstein J, Castro M, Tian H, Pybus O, Kraemer MUG (2020) Crowding and the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 transmission. MedRxiv. DOI:


Bernardo Gutierrez es alumnus y actual profesor USFQ. Se graduó de Ingeniero en Procesos Biotecnológicos en la Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, obtuvo su Maestría en Genética Cuantitativa y Análisis Genómico en The University of Edimburgh y se encuentra desarrollando su PhD en Oxford University. Es profesor del Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales COCIBA-USFQ.


The COVID-19 pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread. During the initial phase of the outbreak the spread was primarily determined by human mobility. Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic spread is lacking. We analyse highly-resolved spatial variables for cities in China together with case count data in order to investigate the role of climate, urbanization, and variation in interventions across China. Here we show that the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 is strongly shaped by crowding, such that epidemics in dense cities are more spread out through time, and denser cities have larger total incidence. Observed differences in epidemic intensity are well captured by a metapopulation model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. Densely-populated cities worldwide may experience more prolonged epidemics. Whilst stringent interventions can shorten the time length of these local epidemics, although these may be difficult to implement in many affected settings.